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Prediction for CME (2025-03-17T03:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-03-17T03:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/37875/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] The arrival of this CME was not clearly detected at L1. CME Note: Very slow CME that looks like a slow streamer blowout, with a succession of almost identical faint fronts seen in both coronagraphs. The CME seems to accelerate, as seen in SOHO LASCO C3 imagery. There is no clear source seen on the disk, although there is a super minor dimming in AIA 193 centered around N30E10 starting after 00:30Z and continuing until 05Z, but it is extremely faint.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-03-20T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/37874/1
Model Inputs:
2025-03-17T03:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-9.0, Lat.=25.0, Speed=420.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2025-03-17T17:34Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-03-20T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-18T12:36Z
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-22T12:00Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-22T14:00Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-22T06:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-21T06:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_173400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_173400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_173400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_173400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_173400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_173400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_173400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_173400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_173400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_173400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_173400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_173400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_173400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_173400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_173400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_173400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_173400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 57.42 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2025-03-17T20:35Z

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